As an environmental scientist, I want to believe that the energy transition is inevitable because rational humanity grasps the policy implications of the unbending laws of atmospheric science: The climate is changing because of the combustion of fossil fuels. However, truths, inconvenient or not, rarely drive social and political movements on any linear trajectory. I believe the energy transition is now inevitable because it is essential to the interests of U.S. capitalism fueled by government policies in many countries in the context of a competitive global economy.
As we approach the U.S. federal elections next week, and the political birth of a new president, we should do the political equivalent of Lamaze breathing exercises. Lamaze doesn’t guarantee the painless birth of a child or a president with perfect policies, but breathing exercises can make a challenging process more tolerable. My long experience as a Boomer emphasizes the value of political deep breathing and the perspective that comes with it.
The 1976 election that put Jimmy Carter in the White House was the first in which I was eligible to vote. As president, Carter championed human rights, and doubled the size of the nation’s wildlife refuges and national parks. He created the U.S. Department of Energy, put solar panels on the White House roof, and introduced tax credits for solar power (in the banner photo above, Carter is shown speaking in front of the solar panels – more details below).
As is clear from Randall Balmer’s biography of Carter, “Redeemer: The Life of Jimmy Carter” (updated 2024), the factors that doomed Carter to only one term as president seem strangely familiar:
- Inflation and increased interest rates to control it.
- Iran (American hostages then, American and Israeli hostages now taken by Iran proxy Hamas).
- Soviet imperialism (USSR invasion of Afghanistan then, Russian invasion of Ukraine now).
- Human rights violations abroad (political prisoners in South Africa and the USSR then and in Russia now) and at home (systemic racism, including voting rights, then and now).
- Reaction to civil rights advances (from Jerry Falwell then and his successors now, as powerfully chronicled in Tim Alberta’s 2023 book, “The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory”).
- Energy policy (the1979 oil crisis then, natural gas vs. renewables now).
Ronald Reagan, Carter’s successor, launched his presidential campaign in Neshoba County, Mississippi, by declaring his support for states’ rights, a combination of message and place that constituted a loud racist dog whistle. After his inauguration, Reagan ordered the White House solar panels removed and opened federal lands for oil, gas, and coal extraction. These were not the only trajectories reversed during the Reagan era. In their 2021 book, “The Upswing,” Robert Putnam and Shaylyn Romney Garrett also documented a reversal of previously improving trends in wealth inequality and social cohesion. The environmental, economic, and social policy whiplash from Carter to Reagan was severe.
Through subsequent changes in presidents, the pendulum of such policies has continued to swing back and forth, sometimes less dramatically than others, but the long-term nonlinear trend remains: greater public support for conservation, pollution controls, and a transition to renewable energy. Another Carter-to-Reagan or Obama-to-Trump like swing could slow down the energy transition, but it won’t stop it.
Titans of the U.S. automobile industry Mary Barra, CEO of GM, and Jim Farley, CEO of Ford, have all but said that the worst U.S. policy for the long-term health of American automobile manufacturers would be to reverse the transition to EVs. Any U.S. policies that slow that transition – even if coupled with protectionist policies against EV imports from China – would most likely guarantee that American automakers will fail in the long term in the face of foreign competition.
Millennials and those in Gen Z may be inclined to despair at the extreme policy flip-flops that have characterized their political experience. Deep breathing and a long-term perspective may seem trivial comforts in the face of the urgency of mitigating and adapting to climate change. As Cornell Atkinson advisor and recently emotional weatherman John Toohey-Morales wrote last week, both the older and younger generations are beginning to share climate anxiety. That includes me.
Nevertheless, if the upcoming election produces policies that slow down the energy transition and other responses to climate change, my experience suggests that the slowdown will be temporary and the transition inevitable now that some influential sectors of capitalism are on the transition’s side. Despite the “Age of Grievance” in which we live – as Frank Bruni describes our fractious me-oriented world – in this case, the environmentalists and auto-making capitalists are on the same side.
Photo: President Jimmy Carter seen announcing his solar energy policy in front of solar panels installed on the West Wing roof of the White House, on June 20, 1979.
Photo credit: Warren K. Leffler, https://www.loc.gov/item/2021637592/
Learn more about David M. Lodge